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We compare several representative sophisticated model averaging and variable selection techniques of forecasting stock returns. When estimated traditionally, our results confirm that the simple combination of individual predictors is superior. However, sophisticated models improve dramatically...
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In a seminal contribution, Campbell (1996) [Campbell, J., 1996, Understanding Risk and Return, Journal of Political … predictors of portfolio returns are estimated and used as risk factors in an asset pricing model. One key element is the … of risk associated with the predictors non identifiable. This is because they depend on the arbitrary ordering of the …
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