Showing 1 - 10 of 235
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011991054
GARCH model. The GDFM, applied to a large number of series, captures the multivariate information and disentangles the … a GARCH.We compare GDFM+GARCH and standard GARCH performance on two samples up to 171 series, providing one …-step-ahead volatility predictions of returns. The GDFM+GARCH model outperforms the standard GARCH in most cases. These results are robust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328627
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001388258
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001124154
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000886147
Bayesian inference in a time series model provides exact, out-of-sample predictive distributions that fully and coherently incorporate parameter uncertainty. This study compares and evaluates Bayesian predictive distributions from alternative models, using as an illustration five alternative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605015
A prediction model is any statement of a probability distribution for an outcome not yet observed. This study considers the properties of weighted linear combinations of n prediction models, or linear pools, evaluated using the conventional log predictive scoring rule. The log score is a concave...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605063
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001736255
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001650402
series, namely, mixed normal and Markov-switching GARCH models. In the second part of the study, we also consider …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002452594