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forecasting volatility. Key papers in this area include Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), Corsi (2004), Andersen …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009771770
using these models in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise compared with the forecasts obtained based on the usual linear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478989
variancefunctions. In a genuine out-of-sample forecasting experiment theperformance of the best fitted asMA-asQGARCH model is compared … topure asMA and no-change forecasts. This is done both in terms ofconditional mean forecasting as well as in terms of risk … forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289
of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326350
is related to dividend growth. A single dominant realised returns factor is also noted. A forecasting exercise comparing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011487829
This paper presents a new test of the present value model of stock price determination, using some of the recent advances in the econometrics of seasonal time series. Unlike earlier studies which generally find stock prices, dividends, and interest rates to be characterized by standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014043638
The size of the equity risk premium remains an unanswered question in the accounting and finance literature. This study proposes a new approach to reverse-engineer the equity risk premium, distinct from prior research, in that it does not rely on analysts’ forecasts to proxy for the market’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014195500
-form volatility modeling and forecasting as well as testing for the presence of jumps …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014202215
We extend the fractionally integrated exponential GARCH (FIEGARCH) model for daily stock return data with long memory in return volatility of Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996) by introducing a possible volatility-in-mean effect. To avoid that the long memory property of volatility carries over to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014217107
-GARCH models in terms of in-sample fit, out-of-sample fit, and forecasting accuracy compared to classical and Realized GARCH models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013029008