We introduce a new meaure of risk appetite in financial markets, based on the cross sectional behavior of excess returns. Turning them into probabilities through a Markov Switching model, we define one global risk appetite measure as the cross-sectional average of the individual probabilities...

A shared belief in the financial industry is that markets are driven by two types of regimes. Bull markets would be characterized by high returns and low volatility whereas bear markets would display low returns coupled with high volatility. Modeling the dynamics of different asset classes...

This article questions the empirical usefulness of leverage effects to describe the dynamics of equity returns. Relying on both in and out of sample tests we consistently find a weak contribution of leverage effects over the past 25 years of S&P 500 returns. The skewness in the conditional...

Recent contributions highlight the importance of intraday jumps in forecasting realized volatility at horizons up to one month. We extend the methodology developed in Maheu and McCurdy (2011) to exploit the information content of intraday data in forecasting the density of returns. Considering...

This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also...

Using the capital asset pricing model, this article critically assesses the relative importance of computing 'realized' betas from high-frequency returns for Bitcoin and Ethereum-the two major cryptocurrencies-against their classic counterparts using the 1-day and 5-day return-based betas. The...