In this paper, we propose a new method to assess the impact of sovereign ratings on sovereign bond yields. We estimate the impulse response of the interest rate, following a change in the rating. Since ratings are ordinal and moreover extremely persistent, it proves difficult to estimate those...

Pearson's correlation coefficient is typically used for measuring the dependence structure of stock returns. Nevertheless, it has many shortcomings often documented in the literature. We suggest to use a conditional version of Spearman's rho as an alternative dependence measure. Our approach is...

We develop an exact and distribution-free procedure to test for quantile predictability at several quantile levels jointly, while allowing for an endogenous predictive regressor with any degree of persistence. The approach proceeds by combining together the quantile regression t-statistics from...

We propose a new nonparametric test to identify mutually exciting jumps in high frequency data. We derive the asymptotic properties of the test statistics and show that the tests have good size and reasonable power in finite sample cases. Using our mutual excitation tests, we empirically...

This paper aims at improved accuracy in testing for long-run predictability in noisy series, such as stock market returns. Long-horizon regressions have previously been the dominant approach in this area. We suggest an alternative method that yields more accurate results. We find evidence of...

This paper examines the joint dynamics of a system of asset returns by describing and implementing a factor multivariate stochastic volatility (factor MSV) model. The foundation for the model discussed here is the work of Doz and Renault (2006). Despite its attractive design, that model has not...

This paper introduces new econometric tests to identify stochastic intensity jumps in high-frequency data. Our approach exploits the behavior of a time-varying stochastic intensity and allows us to assess how intensely stock market reacts to news. We describe the asymptotic properties of our...

Drift and volatility are two mainsprings of asset price dynamics. While volatilities have been studied extensively in the literature, drifts are commonly believed to be impossible to estimate and largely ignored in the literature. This paper shows how to detect drift using realized...

The proper forecasting of listed companies' earnings is crucial for their appropriate pricing. This paper compares forecast errors of different univariate time-series models applied for the earnings per share (EPS) data for Polish companies from the period between the last financial crisis of...

We propose using a permutation test to detect discontinuities in an underlying economic model at a known cutoff point. Relative to the existing literature, we show that this test is well suited for event studies based on time‐series data. The test statistic measures the distance between the...