We study the optimal consumption and investment choice for long-horizon investors with nontradable labor income and time-varying investment opportunities. Our results suggest that the popular investment recommendation that more conservative investors should hold a higher bond/stock ratio may...

In a calibrated consumption-portfolio model with stock, housing, and labor income predictability, we disentangle the welfare effects of skill and luck. Skilled investors are able to take advantage of all sources of predictability, whereas unskilled investors ignore predictability. Lucky...