Following the recent financial crisis, a number of commentators have suggested that liquidity disappears in falling markets. It is when investors try to convert assets to cash that a lack of liquidity is felt most acutely. In other words, investor sales receive lower liquidity than investor...

In this paper we provide new evidence on the predictability of aggregate stock market returns, and new time series of the expected excess returns on common stocks. We extract aggregate discount rate news from equity portfolio returns and use this information to construct estimates of expected...