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We consider a new dataset that provides a description of the population of financial equity flows between developed countries from 2001 to 2018. We follow the standard practice of controlling for pull and push factors as well as gravity-style variables, while also accounting for the business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332123
We investigate if unemployment fluctuations generate predictability in the cross-section of currency excess returns. To assess the predictability exerted by unemployment fluctuations, we sort currencies according to past growth in the unemployment rate. We find that an investment strategy which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015408806
, Canada, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States) are in recession simultaneously. I pose two new research questions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114667
This study finds that equity returns in the banking sector in the wake of the Great Recession and the European …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104113
This study finds that equity returns in the banking sector in the wake of the Great Recession and the European …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012988766
This study finds that equity returns in the banking sector in the wake of the Great Recession and the European …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010128764
While simultaneously accounting for the effects of sovereign and corporate bond spreads, we document that emerging market economy (EME) equity returns have a strong predictive power for future output growth and account for a significant fraction of output fluctuations in these countries. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228183
The price-rent ratio in commercial real estate is highly volatile, and its variation comoves with the business cycle. To account for these two facts, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that explicitly introduces a rental market and incorporates the liquidity constraint on an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219582
This paper extends the benchmark Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) term spread approach to recession forecasting by … deviation significantly improves our ability to predict the onset of a US recession, based both on in-sample and out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007569
of economic downturn and (ii) investors are willing to pay high fees for funds that provide recession insurance. In this … recession alphas charge low fees to investors. We provide evidence that recession underperformance can be explained by fund …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010410729