We propose a practical investment framework for dynamic asset allocation across different economic regimes, which we illustrate using a sample of U.S. data from 1948 to 2007. We identify four regimes in the economic cycle and find that these regimes capture pronounced time-variation in the risk...

Theoretical models, such as the CAPM, predict a positive relation between risk and return, but the empirical evidence paints a mixed picture. Positive, flat and negative relations have been reported in various empirical studies. In this paper we reconcile these seemingly conflicting results by...