Uncovered interest rate parity, together with long-run relative purchase power parity, implies that the real exchange rate has predictive power for real bond return differentials. We show this implication to be at odds with the data. Hence, we provide new (indirect) evidence of time-varying...

Following the Pension Protection Act of 2006, there was a sharp increase in the use of TDFs as default investment options in defined contribution retirement plans. We document large differences in realized TDF returns and risk profiles, even for funds with the same target retirement date. Using...

We study a new and unique data set of daily aggregate transfers of funds between mutual funds held in 401(k) accounts. We find that 401(k) transfers correlate strongly and positively with contemporaneous daily returns in the corresponding asset class. GMM estimation based on the...

Following the Pension Protection Act of 2006, there was a sharp increase in the use of TDFs as default investment options in defined contribution retirement plans. We document large differences in realized TDF returns and risk profiles, even for funds with the same target retirement date. Using...

We assume that the instantaneous riskless rate reverts toward a central tendency which, in turn, is changing stochastically over time. As a result, current short-term rates are not sufficient to predict future short- term rate movements, as it would be the case if the central tendency were...