We find that expected return is related to trading volume positively among underpriced stocks but negatively among overpriced stocks. As such, trading volume amplifies mispricing. Our results are robust to alternative mispricing and trading volume measures, alternative portfolio formation...

We reaffirm the stylized fact that bond risk premia are time-varying with macroeconomic condition, even with real-time macro data instead of commonly used final revised data. While real-time data are noisier and render standard forecasts insignificant, we find that, with four efficient...

We construct a monthly Presidential Economic Approval Rating (PEAR) index from 1981 to 2019, by averaging ratings on president’s handling of the economy across various national polls. In the cross-section, stocks with high betas to changes in the PEAR index significantly under-perform those...

We propose a new investor sentiment index that is aligned with the purpose of predicting the aggregate stock market. By eliminating a common noise component in sentiment proxies, the new index has much greater predictive power than existing sentiment indices both in- and out-of-sample, and the...

We provide a comprehensive study on the cross-sectional predictability of corporate bond returns using big data and machine learning. We examine whether a large set of equity and bond characteristics drive the expected returns on corporate bonds. Using either set of characteristics, we find that...