This paper studies comovements in commodity futures markets. We compare factor models with respect to their fit of commodity return comovements. A model based on traded long-short portfolio returns outperforms a macroeconomic model, and explains 96% of the realised comovement. Dissecting the...

We develop a framework to quantify the convenience yield risk (CYR) inherent to each commodity futures market. Implementing our approach, we document that our novel CYR measure is informative about future commodity returns. In panel regressions, the CYR predicts future returns with a positive...