In asset return predictability, realized returns and future expected returns tend to move in opposite directions. This generates a tension between tax-timing and market-timing incentives. In this study, a portfolio choice problem in the presence of both return predictability and capital gains...

We show that option prices predict future stock returns only when stock returns are ex-ante predictable using public signals from the stock market itself. Directional option trading cannot explain these results, suggesting that they are not driven by informed trading or superior ability of...