We examine whether the properties of earnings forecasts – bias and dispersion are different across periods when macroeconomic forecasts are optimistic than non-optimistic, and whether this difference in analyst forecast optimism is stronger during recessionary periods. We find that the...

We decompose consensus analyst long-term growth forecasts into a hard growth component that captures accounting information (asset and sales growth, profitability and equity dilution) and an orthogonal soft growth component. The soft component does not forecast future returns, and the hard...

This paper investigates the relationships among cross-sectional stock returns and analysts' forecast revisions, forecast dispersion and momentum. Market rewards the strategy in pursuit of revision up and away from revision down by 22.7% per annum over the 1983-2015 periods. I find that the...

We investigate the question whether macroeconomic variables contain information about future stock volatility beyond that contained in past volatility. We show that forecasts of GDP and industrial production growth from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters predict volatility...

By utilizing survey forecasts of macroeconomic statistics, we find that market participants' expectations are not rational as they exhibit an anchoring bias. The forecasts systematically under-predict macroeconomic statistics and the forecast errors are predicted by past macroeconomic...

This paper examines the stability of the predictive power of the yield spread for future GDP growth. We find that the ability of the spread to predict future GDP growth has weakened since 1984:Q1. Given the decomposition of the yield spread into the expectation component and the term premium...

Lagged GNP growth rates are poor forecasts of future GNP growth rates in postwar US data, leading to the impression that GNP is nearly a random walk. However, other variables, and especially the lagged consumption/GNP ratio, do forecast long-horizon GNP growth, and show that GNP has temporary...

We explore whether economic links via trade affect aggregate Chinese stock market returns. We find that market return indices from countries that China net exports from can forecast the Chinese aggregate market return at the weekly time horizon. Countries that China net exports to have no...

In this paper, we propose an econometric model of the joint dynamic relationship between the yield curve and the economy to predict business cycles. We examine the predictive value of the yield curve to forecast future economic growth as well as the beginning and end of economic recessions at...