We show that the call-put implied volatility spread (IVS) outperforms many well-known predictors of the U.S. equity premium at return horizons up to six months over the period from 1996:1 to 2017:12. The predictive ability of the IVS is unrelated to the dividend yield and is useful in explaining...

We identify a feedback loop between fire sales and equity option returns. The demand effect of fire sales induced by mutual fund extreme outflows decreases delta-hedged put option returns by 4-10% per year and increases the expensiveness by 2.5%. We address endogenous concerns using instrumental...

Are stock valuation ratios mainly informative about future earnings growth or future returns? Using a variance decomposition, we find that over 70% of cross-sectional variation in price-earnings ratios is reflected in cross-sectional differences in future returns, while less than 30% is...