Recent studies show that loss probability (LP) is a decisive factor when people evaluate risk of assets in laboratory experiments, suggesting a positive relationship between LP and expected stock returns. This corresponds to the classical "Safety-First" principle. We find empirical support for...

This study examines whether and why the stock market assigns an incremental premium to the act of beating analyst earnings forecasts when the economy is unforecastable. Our study uses a novel measure of macroeconomic (macro) uncertainty from Jurado et al. (2015) that captures periods during...