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This study examines the predictive power of the Delta Yield Curve in anticipating recessions in the U.S. economy, focusing on the difference between "US treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity" and "market rate on 3-month treasury bills" from 1962 to 2023. It identify three sequential...
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Die empirische Literatur zur Zinsstruktur zeigt, dass sich langfristige Zinsen nicht - wie dies die sogenannte … Forecasters (SPF), die vierteljährlich von der Federal Reserve Bank Philadelphia unter Prognostikern aus Banken, Finanzunternehmen … und Forschungsinstituten in den USA erhoben werden. Wir zeigen empirisch, dass die Erwartungen bei Risikoprämien …
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, we test whether foreign bank assets change as a result of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks. We frame our … implications of this model using dynamic panel models for changes in foreign bank assets. We find evidence that nominal interest … rate differentials and inflation differentials drive changes in foreign bank assets permanently, while growth rate …
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Increases in the federal funds rate aimed at stabilizing the economy have inevitably been followed by recessions. Recently, peaks in the federal funds rate have occurred 6-16 months before the start of recessions; reductions in interest rates apparently occurred too late to prevent those...
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