Economic uncertainty is an important factor behind macroeconomic fluctuations: in an uncertain environment, firms reduce hiring and investment, financial intermediaries are more reluctant to lend and households increase their propensity to save. In the present paper, we study the effects of the...

Monetary policy in the United States has often followed a gradual approach by changing policy rates through multiple small adjustments rather than all-at-once hikes or cuts. This conduct could provide a signal about the extent of the intended policy change. We quantify the state-dependent...