An earlier version of this paper, "The Business Cycle and Economic Forecasting," was presented to the Western Economic Association in July 1986, and to the Federal Reserve System Research Committee on Business Analysis in November 1986.Macroeconomic forecasts are traditionally stated as point...

Recent empirical analysis has challenged the common belief that prices are procyclical. Here the analysis is augmented with data on average movements by phase of business cycles. While the data can be interpreted to be consistent with countercyclical prices, the data are also consistent with the...