Hamilton (2018) suggests that the Kilian (2009) index of global real economic activity is misleading and calls for alternative measures. The problem documented by Hamilton is a consequence of a coding mistake. Specifically, the index of nominal freight rates underlying the Kilian index was...

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role...

Research on oil markets conducted during the last decade has challenged long-held beliefs about the causes and consequences of oil price shocks. As the empirical and theoretical models used by economists have evolved, so has our understanding of the determinants of oil price shocks and of the...