Using Growth at Risk as a measure of downside growth risk, the authors find that higher perceived levels of downside growth risk seem to be negatively associated with long-term growth. Output collapses and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically and have grave...

Output collapses, and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically, and have grave consequences on the poor. The authors propose a new measurement for economic downside risk, and severity: Growth at risk. Similar to the concept of Value at Risk in finance, Growth at...