A Markov-switching model of postwar quarterly real GNP growth is used to examine the duration dependence of business cycles. It extends the Hamilton model and the duration-dependent model of Durland and McCurdy, and compares quite favorably to simpler models in out-of-sample forecasting. When an...

An aggregate demand - aggregate supply framework is used to analyze the effects of Japanese monetary policy, 1973:1-1990:8. It is found that money supply shocks contribute relatively little to output variability over the sample as a whole. Nor do these shocks seem to be particularly marked...