The question of whether and how mutual fund managers provide valuable services for their clients motivates one of the largest literatures in finance. One candidate explanation is that funds process information about future asset values and use that information to invest in high-valued assets....

The literature assessing whether mutual fund managers have skill typically regards skill as an immutable attribute of the manager or the fund. Yet, many measures of skill, such as returns, alphas, and measures of stock-picking and market-timing, appear to vary over the business cycle. Because...

The question of whether and how mutual fund managers provide valuable services for their clients motivates one of the largest literatures in finance. One candidate explanation is that funds process information about future asset values and use that information to invest in high-valued assets....

When an economic boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, the boom is more gradual. Our explanation for this pattern rests on learning about productivity. When agents believe productivity is high, they work, invest, and produce more. More production generates...

When a boom ends, the downturn is generally sharp and short. When growth resumes, theboom is more gradual. Our explanation rests on learning about productivity. When agentsbelieve productivity is high, they work, invest, and produce more. More production generates higher precision information....