This paper analyses sectoral business cycle synchronization in an enlarged European Union using annual data for the period 1980-2005. In particular, we try to identify which sector for each country is driving the aggregate output business cycle synchronization. Overall, the sectors that provide...

This paper analyses sectoral business cycle synchronization in an enlarged European Union using annual data for the period 1980-2005. In particular, we try to identify which sector for each country is driving the aggregate output business cycle synchronization. Overall, the sectors that provide...

What does the macroeconomy look like in the aftermath of tariff changes This paper estimates impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. Tariff increases are associated with persistent, economically and statistically...

We provide a simple exercise for the real growth rate of GDP in 2020 in Portugal, with three alternative scenarios: pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic, with the range for real growth between -5.8% and -3.9%. Of particular relevance is private consumption and investment, with households...

In this paper, we assess the impact of fiscal policy discretion on economic activity in the short and medium-term. Using a panel of 132 countries from 1960 to 2008, we find that fiscal policy discretion provides a net stimulus to the economy in the short-run and crowding-in effects are amplified...