encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …

short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United …

the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyze the problem of … resulting leading indicator based forecasts, and review the recent literature on the forecasting performance of leading …

story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …