Common statistical measures of bond risk premia are volatile and countercyclical. This paper uses survey data on interest rate forecasts to construct subjective bond risk premia. Subjective premia are less volatile and not very cyclical; instead they are high, only around the early 1980s. The...

This paper uses new household survey data to study expectation formation during the recent housing boom in Germany. The cross section of forecasts depends on only two household characteristics: location and tenure. The average household in a region responds to local conditions but underpredicts...

This paper uses a dynamic model of borrowers, savers, and banks to understand the behavior of house prices, mortgage credit and interest rates during the housing boom. Banks lend long-term defaultable mortgages to borrowers and raise funds by issuing equity and deposits to savers. Securitization...

We theoretically and quantitatively analyze the impact of fiscal and monetary stimulus during and after the 2020 Covid recession on output, inflation, and house prices. Our theoretical analysis clarifies that fiscal stimulus increases consumption demand in a recession by providing liquidity, by...

We develop a general equilibrium model in which households' mortgage leverage is determined by supply and demand forces, where the price of credit impacts the quantity of leverage households choose. Mortgages are supplied by financial intermediaries, who offer households a menu of mortgage...

In this paper we present an analysis of the impact of the great recession of the years 2008 and 2009 on the Austrian economy. For this purpose, we utilize the new estimated DSGE model of the OeNB for the Austrian economy within the Euro area. This model is a small open-economy version of Smets &...