We investigate the role of private sector credit in shaping the severity of recessions. Using a sample of 130 downturns in 26 advanced economies since the 1970s, we assess whether the growth or level of credit is the better predictor of the severity of a recession. In addition to GDP we examine...

1. Introduction -- 2. Business, Monetary and Credit Cycles in Theory -- 3. Statistical and Econometric Analysis of the Cycle -- 4. GDP data for Analysing Business Cycles -- 5. Metrics and Turning Points of Cycles 1660-2018 -- 6. A Narrative History of UK Business Cycles -- 7. Conclusions

The Quarterly Bulletin has a long tradition of using historical data to help analyse the latest developments in the UK economy. To mark the Bulletin's 50th anniversary, this article places the recent UK recession in a long-run historical context. It draws on the extensive literature on UK...