We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...

Many stylized facts of leverage, trading, and asset prices obtain in a frictionless general equilibrium model that features agents' heterogeneity in endowments and habit preferences. Our model predicts that aggregate debt increases in expansions when asset prices are high, volatility is low, and...

Many stylized facts of leverage, trading, and asset prices obtain in a frictionless general equilibrium model that features agents' heterogeneity in endowments and habit preferences. Our model predicts that aggregate debt increases in expansions when asset prices are high, volatility is low, and...

In the past 20 years, measures of economic uncertainty have been developed that are purely market price based; structural model based, using data on real fundamentals and asset prices; text based; or survey based. We compare the performance of these uncertainty measures in forecasting three real...

In the past twenty years, measures of economic uncertainty have been developed that are either purely market price-based, structural model-based using data on real fundamentals and asset prices, text-based, or survey-based. We compare the performance of these uncertainty measures in forecasting...