We study sources and consequences of fluctuations in the housing market. The upward trend in real housing prices of the last 40 years can be explained by slow technological progress in the housing sector. Over the business cycle, housing demand and housing technology shocks explain one-quarter...

This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It...

During the last decade, property prices in Germany steadily appreciated and reached an all-time high in 2022. In the wake of the global financial crisis that was triggered by a housing market bubble in the U.S., banking authorities introduced an additional systemic risk buffer. This buffer aims...

The slope of the yield curve has long been found to be a useful predictor of future economic activity, but the relationship is unstable. One change we have identified in this paper is that, starting from the 1990s, movements at the long end of the yield curve have an increase in predictive...

The dramatic COVID-19-induced rise in unemployment has greatly increased uncertainty about the ability of renters to pay their rent. Ostensibly, a small increase in nonpayment incidence could sharply reduce shelter inflation. Will nonpayment during the current COVID collapse induce such a...

In this report, we examine the housing wealth effect channel of monetary policy and measure the increase in consumption as a result of the large increase in house prices after the Great Recession using administrative banking data, including transaction-level deposit and credit card data and...

This paper analyses the behaviour of prices and supply on the German housing market taking into account the interaction between prices and quantities. A novel price index for residential property prices covering the whole country going back to 1993 is used in a macroeconomic model to estimate...

What began to unveil in the beginning of 2018 has become a reality since mid-2019: the global economic slowdown. What is unusual is that it is taking place synchronously, similar to the situation during the financial crisis. How could that happen when the central banks have been trying to...

In this paper, we use two comprehensive micro datasets to study the evolution of the distribution of mortgage debt during the 2000s housing boom. We show that the allocation of mortgage debt remained stable, as did the distribution of real estate assets. We propose that any theory of the boom...