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House-purchasing decisions and the possibility of existing homeowners to tap into their housing equity depend decisively on prevailing loan-to-value (LTV) ratios in mortgage markets with borrowing constrained households. Utilizing a smooth transition local projection (STLP) approach, I show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011963152
We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093040
The paper estimates a model that allows for shifts in the aggressiveness of monetary policy and time variation in the distribution of macroeconomic shocks. These model features induce variations in the cyclical properties of inflation and the riskiness of bonds. The estimation identifies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012973281
We use a unique Brazilian dataset on daily survey expectations to obtain direct measures of shocks to central bank target rates and changes in economic uncertainty. Using these measures, we gauge the effect of monetary policy shocks on economic uncertainty, term premia, inflation expectations,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860102
that a 100-basis-point increase in our new shock series leads to a 1.0 per cent decrease in real GDP and a 0.4 per cent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011777945
This paper documents firm-level evidence on the asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the US. Focusing on firm-level data from 1980q3 to 2016q2, I find that monetary contractions triple the effects of monetary expansions on firms’ employment, investment rate, and sales. Furthermore, I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236795
We analyse the stability of countries within a monetary union in the face of asymmetric shocks, using a simple but widely applicable model. We show that members of the union may be subject to severe cycles following asymmetric shocks if there is a significant backward looking element in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014064465
the pre-1980 period. Measuring expectations of future monetary policy rates conditional on a news shock suggests that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889175
This paper develops a Spatial Vector Auto-Regressive (SpVAR) model that takes into account both the time and the spatial dimensions of economic shocks. We apply this framework to analyze the propagation through space and time of macroeconomic (inflation, output gap and interest rate) shocks in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143231
In this paper, we examine the role of global and domestic credit supply shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations for Emerging Markets. For this purpose, we impose a set of zero and sign restrictions within a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive model. Quarterly data from South Africa and G-7...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009754529