This paper provides an underlying reason for why recent Bayesian trend-cycle decompositions of U.S. real GDP differ despite using identical unobserved components models. We stress that a pitfall in estimating unobserved components models accounts for the divergence in the empirical conclusions....

The GDP deflator has recently been significantly affected by export and import prices such as oil prices and growth is projected to remain at a relatively low level in 2019, continuing last year's trend. Preparations must be made for the potential negative impact from the continued low growth in...