We build a model of the global financial cycle with one key ingredient: the demand for safe dollar assets. The model matches patterns of dollar borrowing and currency mismatch, the U.S. external balance sheet, low U.S. interest rates and exorbitant privilege, spillovers of the U.S. monetary...

A stronger US fiscal condition predicts a higher excess return on the dollar against foreign currencies in the following year, and more so against foreign currencies with higher dollar betas. Through the lens of a no-arbitrage model, I use these findings to refine our understanding of the...

We build a model of the global financial cycle with one key ingredient: the demand for safe dollar assets. The model matches patterns of dollar borrowing and currency mismatch, the U.S. external balance sheet, low U.S. interest rates and exorbitant privilege, spillovers of the U.S. monetary...