This study investigates whether tourism sector recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is influenced by only the size of the economic stimulus packages or whether a country's resilience plays a moderating influence in the underlying relationship. The results show that while economic stimulus...

We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...

This paper analyzes the economic impact of the pandemic, providing insights into the consequences of alternative policies. Our framework focuses on three key features: (a) Covid-19 is a sectoral shock of unknown depth and duration affecting some sectors and technologies more than others; (b)...

The Azerbaijani economy is facing a massive crisis due to the systemic failure of the government to enact reforms. Global oil prices drop and the COVID-19 pandemic is widening the chasm between the haves and have-nots