There is widespread evidence of excess return predictability in financial markets. In this paper we examine whether this predictability is related to expectational errors. To consider this issue, we use data on survey expectations of market participants in the stock market, the foreign exchange...

We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied...

We show that the volatility of a price process, which is usuallyregarded as an impediment to financial growth, can serve as an en-dogenous factor in its acceleration.

We propose a new continuous time framework to study asset prices under learning and ambiguity aversion. In a partial information Lucas economy with time additive power utility, a discount for ambiguity arises if and only if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) is above one. Then,...

The paper examines a dynamic model of a financial market with endogenous asset prices determined by short run equilibrium of supply and demand. Assets pay dividends that are partially consumed and partially reinvested. The traders use fixed-mix investment strategies (portfolio rules),...

This paper examines the impact of a public credit registry on the repayment behavior of borrowers. We implement an experimental credit market in which loan repayment is not third-party enforceable. We compare market outcome with a credit registry to that without a credit registry. This...

This paper presents a general equilibrium currency crisis model of the ’thirdgeneration’, in which the possibility of currency crises is driven by the in-terplay between private firms’ credit-constraints and nominal price rigidities.Despite our emphasis on microfoundations, the model remains...

In der Vergangenheit führte die Globalisierung und Öffnung der Finanzmärkte zu größerer Kapital- und Dienstleistungsfreiheit und zur De-Regulierung des Finanzsektors. In jüngster Zeit ist jedoch eine Trendumkehr von der De-Regulierung zur Re-Regulierung zu beobachten...

On financial markets many investment decisions are taken by groups and not by individuals. The evidence, however, whether groups better than individuals, is ambigous. We analyze the portfolios of groups and individuals in an asset allocation task on an experimental market. We find that groups on...