Two models of default risk are prominent in the financial literature: Merton's structural model and Altman's reduced-form model. The former has the benefit of being responsive, since the probabilities of default can continually be updated with the evolution of firms' asset values. Its main flaw...

The Basel Accord assumes an inverse relationship between the probability of default and the asset correlation parameter, with the latter being responsible for modeling the degree of cyclicality of default rates. Previous empirical studies that embedded the formula of the Basel Accord into a...

This paper presents a new model for valuing hybrid defaultable financial instruments, such as, convertible bonds. In contrast to previous studies, the model relies on the probability distribution of a default jump rather than the default jump itself, as the default jump is usually inaccessible....

The dependency of the individual default behavior of a firm on the state of the credit cycle is widely implemented in credit portfolio models and ultimately reflected in the Basel II one-factor model determining capital requirements. Despite this, macroeconomic variables able to represent this...

This article proposes a sequential Bayesian updating approach to estimate default probabilities on rating grade level for no- and low-default portfolios. Bayesian sequential updating allows to obtain default probabilities also for those rating grades for which no defaults have been observed. The...

We observe 180 upgrades, in contrast to two downgrades, among 657 Chinese banks during 2015-2017. Evidence shows that the upgrades were results of compromised rating standard rather than improvements to bank fundamentals. Investors reacted negatively to the upgrades, especially those granted by...

In credit portfolio modeling the asset correlation parameter is used to describe the degree of default rates fluctuations. In this article we estimate the asset correlation parameter for banks and other industry sectors from default data. We find that estimates of the asset correlation vary...

We analyse whether soliciting multiple ratings leads to lower syndicated loan spreads. Our results document that banks apply, on average, lower spreads to multi-rated firms. This effect depends on the reduction of information asymmetry about borrowers' creditworthiness (information production...

This paper investigates how lenders react to borrowers' rating changes under heterogeneous conditions and different regulatory regimes. Our findings suggest that corporate downgrades that increase capital requirements for lending banks under the Basel II framework are associated with increased...

This article presents a new model for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by multiple credit risks of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most...