The shape of the term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads displays large variations over time and across firms. Consistent with the predictions of structural models of credit risk, we find that the slope of CDS spread term structure increases with firm leverage and volatility, but...

Corporate bonds with large increases in implied volatility over the past month underperform those with large decreases in implied volatility by 0.6% per month. In contrast to An, Ang, Bali, and Cakici (2014) who show that implied volatility changes carry information about fundamental news, our...

We explore the link between credit and equity markets by considering the informational content of the term structure of credit spreads. A shallower credit term structure predicts decreases in default risk, increases in future profitability, as well as favorable earnings surprises. Further, the...

The slope of a firm's term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads (five-year spread minus one-year spread) negatively predicts future stock returns. Stocks with low CDS slope on average outperform stocks with high CDS slope by over 1% each month for the next six months. Our result can...