In this paper we study the impact of model uncertainty, which occurs when linking a stress scenario to default probabilities, on reduced-form credit risk stress testing. This type of uncertainty is omnipresent in most macroeconomic stress testing applications due to short time series for banks'...

In credit portfolio modeling the asset correlation parameter is used to describe the degree of default rates fluctuations. In this article we estimate the asset correlation parameter for banks and other industry sectors from default data. We find that estimates of the asset correlation vary...

In this paper we study the impact of model uncertainty, which occurs when linking a stress scenario to default probabilities, on reduced-form credit risk stress testing. This type of uncertainty is omnipresent in most macroeconomic stress testing applications due to short time series for banks'...

This paper models the housing sector, mortgages and endogenous default in a DSGE setting with nominal and real rigidities. We use data for the period 1981-2006 to estimate our model using Bayesian techniques. We analyze how an increase in risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and...

This paper exploits a recent and granular data set for 1,500 German LSIs to conduct a residential mortgage stress testing exercise. To account for model uncertainty when modeling PD dynamics we use a benchmark-constrained Bayesian model averaging approach that combines standard BMA with a...

The construction of an internal rating model is the main task for the bank in the framework of the IRB-foundation approach the fact that it is necessary to determine the probability of default by rating class. As a result, several statistical approaches can be used, such as logistic regression...

We contribute to the empirical literature on the impact of non-performing loan (NPL) ratios on aggregate banking sector variables and the macroeconomy by estimating a panel Bayesian VAR model for twelve euro area countries. The model is estimated assuming a hierarchical prior that allows for...

We study loans from banking and non-banking lenders to different groups of borrowers in order to unveil significant differences on how those respond to a shock and evaluate possible alternative explanations for such differences. The objective is to gain insights useful to explain the loan...

This paper exploits a recent and granular data set for 1,500 German LSIs to conduct a residential mortgage stress testing exercise. To account for model uncertainty when modeling PD dynamics we use a benchmark-constrained Bayesian model averaging approach that combines standard BMA with a...

The 2008-2009 financial crises revealed that the Basel Accord of 2004 was inadequate to ensure a stable financial sector. In this paper we analyze whether the Basel Accord's assumption of a single risk factor contributed to the instability. The asset correlation parameter describes the degree of...