In this study we develop and demonstrate a powerful and flexible forward-looking portfolio simulation methodology for assessing the correlated impacts of market risk, and private sector, sovereign and inter-bank default risk on both individual banks (i.e. 28 of the largest Brazilian banks) and...

While Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and private subprime lenders have deservedly garnered the bulk of attention and blame for the mortgage crisis, other federal programs also distort our mortgage market and put taxpayers at risk of having to finance massive financial bailouts. The most prominent of...

We propose a new mortgage contract that endogenously captures the risk of house price declines to minimize default risk resulting from changes in the underlying asset value while still retaining contract rates near the cost of a standard fixed-rate mortgage. By reducing the role of the legal...

A credit default swap (CDS) is a financial contract in which the holder of the instrument will be compensated in the event of a loan default. When available, CDS's are used to monitor the credit risk of countries and companies. In this work we develop a closed form procedure to value a CDS in...

The finance literature looks at a number of factors to explain risk premia in corporate debt, such as liquidity effects, jump-to-default risk, and contagion risk. Stochastic re-covery rates as a source of systematic risk have not received much attention so far, most likely due to the...

In this paper, we create machine learning (ML) models to forecast home equity credit risk for individuals using a real-world dataset and demonstrate methods to explain the output of these ML models to make them more accessible to the end-user. We analyze the explainability of these models for...

We explore the design of climate stress tests to assess and manage macro-prudential risks from climate change in the financial sector. We review the climate stress scenarios currently employed by regulators, highlighting the need to (i) consider many transition risks as dynamic policy choices;...

Central counterparty (CCP) initial margin models are procyclical by nature, and CCPs use antiprocyclicality (APC) tools to mitigate this. However, despite the widespread use of such tools, margin models of CCPs around the world reacted severely to the heightened volatility during the March 2020...

Rating downgrades are known to make subsequent downgrades more likely. We analyze theimpact of this ‘downward momentum’ on credit portfolio risk. Using S&P ratings from 1996to 2005, we estimate a transition matrix that is insensitive to and a second matrix that is sensitiveto previous...