This paper proposes an approach for estimating the uncertainty associated with model-based macroeconomic forecasts. We argue that estimated forecast intervals should account for the uncertainty arising from selecting the specification of an empirical forecasting model from the sample data. To...

The situation of the world economy has improved in recent months. In the industrial countries, activity picked up in the second quarter, and leading indicators point towards a subsequent further strengthening of output growth. The upturn was most pronounced in the United States and in Japan. By...