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even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared … spatial dependence structure into regional forecasting models, especially, when long-term forecasts are made. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039490
forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor … on euro-area data show that the now- and forecasting performance of our new model is superior to that of the subset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566828
This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross sectional information in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964303
forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor … on euro-area data show that the now- and forecasting performance of our new model is superior to that of the subset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977505
We construct a new newspaper-based sentiment indicator for Spain that allows us to monitor Spanish economic activity in real-time. As opposed to the traditional survey-based confidence indicators that are released at the end of the month, our indicator can be constructed on a daily basis and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825665
structure better than other indicators. -- leading indicators ; regional forecasting ; forecast evaluation ; forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009630640
In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315852
We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900715
-time and final data releases differ, we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595370
as benchmark. Finally, we replicate the forecasting experiment including as predictors both an indicator of unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012147303