We investigate the probability forecasting performance of a three-regime dynamic ordered probit model framework …-parametric dating algorithm for the identification of these three phases. We compare the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting skills of an …-Operating-Characteristic (ROC) Kurve sowie zwei dazugehörige statistische Maße berechnet. …

and assess relative model performance based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. While the Treasury term … significantly improve the precision of recession predictions, especially at horizons further out than one year. …

We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both … ROC and inverted precision in PRC are analogous concepts, and their difference is determined by the interaction of sample … quantify the extent to which ROC could be exaggerating the true predictive value of the yield curve in predicting recessions. …

as benchmark. Finally, we replicate the forecasting experiment including as predictors both an indicator of unemployment …

the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …

Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models … models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … to individual models' forecasts. Our results point to three important conclusions. First, the forecasting accuracy of the …

forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor … on euro-area data show that the now- and forecasting performance of our new model is superior to that of the subset …

as benchmark. Finally, we replicate the forecasting experiment including as predictors both an indicator of unemployment …

during unstable periods, such as the Great Recession, but also remain over more tranquil periods. …