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Adaptive Learning, Social Security Reform, and Policy Uncertainty

Cottle Hunt, Erin - 2020

I develop an adaptive learning model to study the welfare effects of Social Security policy uncertainty in an aging economy. Agents combine full knowledge of the political process (which Social Security reforms are possible and when they could occur) with limited knowledge about the structure of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850416

Policy experimentation, political competition, and heterogeneous beliefs

Millner, Antony; Ollivier, Hélène; Simon, Leo - In: Journal of Public Economics 120 (2014) C, pp. 84-96

different beliefs about how policy choices will map into future economic outcomes. We show that when the incumbent party can … having conflicting objectives, but rather stems from their differing beliefs about the consequences of their actions. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011117645

Policy experimentation, political competition, and heterogeneous beliefs.

Millner, Antony; Ollivier, Helene; Simon, Leo - Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 … - 2014

different beliefs about how policy choices will map into future economic outcomes. We show that when the incumbent party can …-serving behavior by political parties, but rather stems from their differing beliefs about the consequences of their actions. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010791257

What Learning Models Tell Us to Expect in Three-by-Three Bimatrix Games

Bouchez, Nicole Marie - Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London - 2001

This paper extends several existing learning models to investigate their fixed points (their long run predictions of play). The fixed points of the model are not necessarily at the Nash equilibria of the payoff matrices but are a function of both the Nash equilibria and the parameters of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005677865

A Look at Learning Models in Three-by-Three Bimatrix Games

Bouchez, Nicole Marie - Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London - 2001

Experimental data is used to test a variety of learning models using a model that extends several of the existing learning models. Generally, the parameter estimate are in the expected ranges. Individual agent parameter estimates indicate that there is considerable individual heterogeneity....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005677870

Asset pricing under rational learning about rare disasters

Koulovatianos, Christos; Wieland, Volker - 2011 - 1st Version: May 20, 2011, This version: July 28, 2011

. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the likelihood of rare disasters drop to a much more pessimistic level once a … disaster has occurred. Such a shift in beliefs can trigger massive declines in price-dividend ratios. Pessimistic beliefs … between rational and adaptive Bayesian learning. Rational learners account for the possibility of future changes in beliefs in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010387528

Belief formation in a signalling game without common prior : an experiment

Possajennikov, Alexandre - 2012

Using belief elicitation, the paper investigates the formation and the evolution of beliefs in a signalling game in … which a common prior on Sender's type is not induced. Beliefs are elicited about the type of the Sender and about the … strategies of the players. The experimental subjects often start with diffuse uniform beliefs and update them in view of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009535526

Strategic attribute learning

Benkert, Jean-Michel; Matyskova, Ludmila; Starkov, Egor - 2024

A researcher allocates a budget of informative tests across multiple unknown attributes to influence a decision-maker. We derive the researcher's equilibrium learning strategy by solving an auxiliary single-player problem. The attribute weights in this problem depend on how much the researcher...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015191554

Complementary Information and Learning Traps

Liang, Annie - 2019

We develop a model of social learning from complementary information: Short-lived agents sequentially choose from a large set of flexibly correlated information sources for prediction of an unknown state, and information is passed down across periods. Will the community collectively acquire the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900782

Learning What Unites or Divides Us : Information Acquisition in Social Learning

Bobkova, Nina; Mass, Helene - 2020

We analyze a social learning model where the agents' utility depends not only on an unknown common component but also on an unknown idiosyncratic component. Each agent splits a learning budget between the two components. We characterize the optimal learning decisions and find necessary and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014095582