According to the risk-free rate puzzle the return on safe assets is much lower than predicted by standard representative agent models of consumption based asset pricing. Based on non-additive probability measures arising in Choquet decision theory we develop a closed-form model of Bayesian...

This paper develops a theoretical model for the formation of subjective beliefs on individual survival expectations. Data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) indicate that, on average, young respondents underestimate their true survival probability whereas old respondents overestimate...

Psychological evidence suggests that people's learning behavior is often prone to a 'myside bias' or 'irrational belief persistence' in contrast to learning behavior exclusively based on objective data. In the context of Bayesian learning such a bias may result in diverging posterior beliefs and...