These are Powerpoint slides prepared for a seminar at ISMed, the Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean, under the aegis the National Research of Italy (CNR). Standard models of finance assume risks are stable, in which case beliefs normally converge smoothly toward the actual risks. In...

In standard models of rational learning from experience, prior uncertainties and disagreements recede smoothly as common evidence accumulates. However, this presumes that the underlying risks are relatively stable. Otherwise, rational learners need to sift random noise for signs that the trend...

The only plausible explanation for why capital markets trade so much so often is that they are pervaded by disagreement, aka heterogeneous beliefs. Heterogeneity fades away when risks are stable, as observed history eventually reveals what they are. However, in real-life capital markets, no past...

This paper develops a model framework and a corresponding empirical inference procedure for estimating long-run marginal cost in industries where production costs decline over time. In the context of the solar photovoltaic module industry, we rely on firm-level financial accounting data to...

The pace of the global decarbonization process is widely believed to hinge on the rate of cost improvements for clean energy technologies, in particular renewable power and energy storage. This paper adopts the classical learning-by-doing framework of Wright (1936), which predicts that cost will...