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Bleile, Jörg - 2014

We provide an axiomatic approach to a belief formation process in an informational environment characterized by limited, heterogenous and differently precise information. For a list of previously observed cases an agent needs to express her belief by assigning probabilities to possible outcomes....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010356678

Risk assessment under ambiguity : precautionary learning vs. research pessimism

Heyen, Daniel; Goeschl, Timo; Wiesenfarth, Boris Roland - 2015

decisions on risk assessment and risk management under conditions of ambiguity, i.e. where probabilities cannot be assigned to … underpins conventional cost-benet analysis (CBA). The other requires that an ambiguity-averse decision-rule - of which maxmin …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409139

Belief formation and belief updating under ambiguity : evidence from experiments

Li, Wenhui; Wilde, Christian - 2020

Decisions under ambiguity depend on the beliefs regarding possible scenarios and the attitude towards ambiguity. This …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012303335

Belief formation and belief updating under ambiguity : evidence from experiments

Li, Wenhui; Wilde, Christian - 2021

This paper investigates beliefs in an ambiguous environment. In contrast to many previous studies, the beliefs regarding possible scenarios are measured independently from attitudes. We use laboratory experiments to estimate the entire distribution of subjective beliefs and examine how beliefs...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012432016

Irrational exuberance and herding in financial markets

Boortz, Christopher - 2016

investigate how informational ambiguity in conjunction with waves of optimism and pessimism affect investor behavior, social … learning and price dynamics. Without ambiguity, neither herding nor contrarianism is possible. If there is ambiguity and agents … have invariant ambiguity preferences, only contrarianism is possible. If on the other hand ambiguity is high and traders …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452902

Symmetry of evidence without evidence of symmetry

Epstein, Larry G.; Seo, Kyoungwon - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 5 (2010) 3, pp. 313-368

The de Finetti Theorem is a cornerstone of the Bayesian approach. Bernardo (1996) writes that its "message is very clear: if a sequence of observations is judged to be exchangeable, then any subset of them must be regarded as a random sample from some model, and there exists a prior distribution...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011695312

A life-cycle model with ambiguous survival beliefs

Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; Zimper, Alexander - 2015

-additive survival beliefs expressing ambiguity attitudes. We embed these neo-additive survival beliefs as decision weights in a Choquet …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012061600

Strategic Experimentation : A Revision

Bolton, Patrick; Harris, Christopher - 2011

This paper extends the classic two-armed bandit problem to a many-agent setting in which I players each face the same experimentation problem. The main change from the single- agent problem is that an agent can now learn from the current experimentation of other agents. Information is therefore...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014042501

A Cyclical Learning Process Under Uncertainty - The Spanish Soccer Betting Game Evidence

Pujol, Francesc - 2008

Based on the well established result of probability matching, we explore in this paper to what extent soccer bettors adjust their behavior taking into account the new relevant information provided by the market. We test empirically the existence of a learning process using the Quiniela bettors'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014218347

Incentives for Learning

Mutlu, Gulseren - 2015

We analyze a dynamic principal-agent problem with moral hazard and private learning. Each period the agent faces a choice between two actions: a safe action with known returns (exploitation) and a costly risky action with unknown returns (experimentation). We explicitly characterize the cheapest...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014135182