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We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a novel news … of households' stated inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model setting, augmented with a simple …, robust and new evidence highlighting the role of the media for understanding inflation expectations and information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115086
We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on … outperforms existing models of inflation expectations in explaining the heterogeneity in the data. We find that women, ethnic … update their expectations. In addition, we show that personal income forecasts are positively related to subjective inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112062
minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on … outperforms existing models of inflation expectations in explaining the heterogeneity in the data. We find that women, ethnic … update their expectations. In addition, we show that personal income forecasts are positively related to subjective inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009411128
expectations from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC) and a rich set of signals available to U.S. households, I document three … novel findings: (1) agents' expectations about the future economic condition have asymmetric and non-linear responses to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250843
inferences under rational expectations, whereas the fraction of backward looking price setters increases. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011573204
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
therefore paramount to a proper understanding of the role of expectations in the determination of macroeconomic outcomes. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997475
Under adaptive learning, recursive algorithms are proposed to represent how agents update their beliefs over time. For applied purposes these algorithms require initial estimates of agents perceived law of motion. Obtaining appropriate initial estimates can become prohibitive within the usual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619472
Experience-Based Learning (EBL) that renders expectations heterogeneous across age groups. Under EBL, the age …-distribution directly affects the composition of aggregate expectations which gives rise to a novel channel by which the demographic …-independent expectations, we show that EBL weakens the pass-through of monetary policy on aggregate demand. This affects monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013330596