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This chapter provides a survey of the recent work on learning in the context of macroeconomics. Learning has several roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts as a selection device in models with multiple REE...
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An economy exhibits structural heterogeneity when the forecasts of different agents have different effects on the determination of aggregate variables. Various forms of structural heterogeneity can arise and we study the important case of economies in which agents' behavior depends on forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011541172
We study the impact of adaptive learning for the design of a robust monetary policy using a small open-economy New Keynesian model. We find that slightly departing from rational expectations substantially changes the way the central bank deals with model misspecification. Learning induces an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012292350
We study adaptive learning in a monetary overlapping generations model with sticky prices and monopolistic competition for the case where learning agents observe current endogenous variables. Observability of current variables is essential for informational consistency of the learning setup with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765346
This paper studies how external incentives can help agents to coordinate in summary-statistic games. Agents follow a myopic best-reply rule and face a trade-off between efficiency and strategic uncertainty. A principal can help agents to coordinate on the Pareto optimal equilibrium by monitoring...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010193864
Adaptive learning under constant-gain allows persistent deviations of beliefs from equilibrium so as to more realistically reflect agents' attempt of tracking the continuous evolution of the economy. A characterization of these beliefs is therefore paramount to a proper understanding of the role...
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This paper proposes a new approach for modeling investor fear after rare disasters. The key element is to take into account that investors' information about fundamentals driving rare downward jumps in the dividend process is not perfect. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010387528