This article questions the rather pessimistic conclusions of Allen and Carroll (2001) about the ability of consumer to learn the optimal buffer-stock based consumption rule. To this aim, we develop an agent based model where alternative learning schemes can be compared in terms of the...

This paper proposes a new approach for modeling investor fear after rare disasters. The key element is to take into account that investors' information about fundamentals driving rare downward jumps in the dividend process is not perfect. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the...

Based on a cognitive notion of neo-additive capacities reflecting likelihood insensitivity with respect to survival chances, we construct a Choquet Bayesian learning model over the life-cycle that generates a motivational notion of neo-additive survival beliefs expressing ambiguity attitudes. We...

This paper sets up a dynamic general equilibrium model to study how the composition of technical progress affects the asymptotic speed of convergence. The following questions are addressed: Will endogenizing a fraction of the productivity increases as coming from learning by investing help to...

The law and economics literature has long theorized that one of the goals of law enforcement is specific deterrence, which relies on the conjecture that imperfectly informed offenders learn about the probability of apprehension from their prior interactions with law enforcement agencies....

Firms often offer a menu of contracts which vary by fee structures in order to differentiate among different types of consumers. Such contracts require that consumers make estimates of their own future behavior to choose among service contracts whose prices condition on usage. We study the...

We study the descriptiveness of the “unravelling” prediction in the 1890s streetcar industry. In this historical setting, capital-intensive streetcar companies gain the opportunity to disclose their earnings to dispersed investors via a new, quarterly newspaper supplement. We document that a...

This paper studies how investors evaluate themselves and its implications. In my model, investors form subjective beliefs about both the stock currently held in portfolio and their trading talent and update their beliefs through learning with fading memory. I calibrate the memory decay...

Attention is a pivotal resource in the modern economy and plays an increasingly prominent role in economic analysis. We summarize research on attention from both psychology and economics, placing a particular emphasis on its capacity to explain numerous documented violations of classical...

People often form mental models based on incomplete information, revising them as new relevant data becomes available. In this paper, we experimentally investigate how individuals update their models when data on predictive variables are gradually revealed. We find that people's models tend to...