Showing 1 - 10 of 1,055
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010533002
This paper models expectation formation by taking into account that agents produce heterogeneous expectations due to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099023
We propose behavioral learning equilibria as a plausible explanation of coordination of individual expectations and … the economy. The simplicity of behavioral learning equilibria makes coordination of individual expectations on such an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088595
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191433
stability conditions for convergence when there are indeterminacies, bubbles, multiple steady states, cycles or sunspot … roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts … as a selection device in models with multiple REE (rational expectations equilibria). Third, the learning dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024243
We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a novel news … of households' stated inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model setting, augmented with a simple …, robust and new evidence highlighting the role of the media for understanding inflation expectations and information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115086
, recurring bubbles arise, where the price is 3 times larger than the fundamental value, which were not seen in former experiments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057
In this paper we evaluate the empirical relevance of learning by private agents in an estimated medium–scale DSGE model. We replace the standard rational expectation assumption in the Smets and Wouters (2007) model by a constant gain learning mechanism. If agents know the correct structure of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014200438