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We apply the dynamic stochastic framework proposed by recent evolutionaryliterature to the class of strict supermodular games when two simplebehavior rules coexist in the population, imitation and myopic optimization.We assume that myopic optimizers are able to see how well their payoff...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011302143
best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057
This paper shows that price rigidity evolves in an economy populated by imperfectly rational agents who experiment with alternative rules of thumb. In the model, firms must set their prices in face of aggregate demand shocks. Their payoff depends on the level of aggregate demand, as well as on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409938
We study abstract macroeconomic systems in which expectations play an important role. Consistent with the recent literature on recursive learning and expectations, we replace the agents in the economy with econometricans. Unlike the recursive learning literature, however, the econometricians in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014212852
We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter space there exist SSEs that are locally stable under least squares learning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014114943
This chapter provides a survey of the recent work on learning in the context of macroeconomics. Learning has several roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts as a selection device in models with multiple REE...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024243
We study abstract macroeconomic systems in which expectations play an important role. Consistent with the recent literature on recursive learning and expectations, we replace the agents in the economy with econometricians. Unlike the recursive learning literature, however, the econometricians in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122565
general classes of steady states within this framework: those where strictly dominated forecasting rules vanish, and intrinsic … intrinsic heterogeneity can also arise in a model where the forecasting rules are not equally costly, and do not exhibit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099023
simple univariate linear forecasting rule and correctly forecast the unconditional sample mean and first-order sample … autocorrelation. In the long run, agents learn the best univariate linear forecasting rule, without fully recognizing the structure of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088595